By Matteo Marcheschi
The 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are here. 16 drivers are ready to battle it out over 10 races for the grand prize: the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Here’s what you need to know about each driver.
Martin Truex Jr.
Truex has been a weekly contender this season, holding the season-high for stage wins, with 18. Between that and his four race wins on the season, he holds the most playoff points, with 53, and occupies the No. 1 seed on the playoff grid. Oh, and he’s the regular season champion. Don’t forget that part. I look forward to seeing him at Homestead.
Kyle Larson
Larson has had a breakout season this year, with four wins, including last weekend at Richmond. Larson is seeded second, behind Truex, with 33 playoff points. This is Larson’s second playoff appearance after finishing ninth in points last season. Four of Larson’s five career wins have come this season. Larson is a championship favorite, and a near-lock for Homestead, like Truex.
Kyle Busch
Busch is the last of the dominant trio this season. His 11 stage wins put him second only to Truex in that category. His two race wins elevated him to a total of 29 playoff points to begin the playoffs. He could easily be at the top of this list, but numerous misfortunes, especially early in the season, cost him win after win. After 2015, though, don’t expect Busch to crumble under pressure. Busch’s new pit crew should also help, after swapping crew’s with Daniel Suarez. Busch is likely to make it far, but bad luck seems to like him more than others.
Brad Keselowski
Keselowski has been consistently inconsistent this season. His two wins and four stage wins have awarded him 19 playoff points, but his season hasn’t been great. He has eight finishes off the lead lap, including five DNFs. His average finish is 14.1, his worst since 2013, when he missed the playoffs completely. Keselowski’s success this season came early, with two wins in the first six races. Lately, though, his luck hasn’t been so kind. He hasn’t scored a top-10 finish since Pocono last month, and simply has not come off the truck with speed like those above him in points.
Jimmie Johnson
Speaking of consistently inconsistent, Jimmie Johnson has been just that this season. With three race wins and a stage win, it seems like he’s having a decent season. Looking closer, though, that isn’t at all the case. Johnson has only three top-5 finishes this season, which are his three wins. His average finish is on track to be the worst of his career, at 16.7. He’s led only 188 laps this season, and hasn’t led since Daytona in July. He hasn’t dominated a single race, which is extremely uncharacteristic. 81 laps led at Bristol is the most he’s led in a single race. We have this discussion every year, but the complete lack of performance and speed is especially concerning this year.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick was bogged down early in the season by a lack of performance due, most likely, to SHR’s switch to Ford. He’s turned it around, though, around Texas in April. With three stage wins and one race win, he has accumulated 15 playoff points on the season. Harvick still hasn’t found the week-in week-out speed that the top three have, though, and while his nickname is the Closer, he will have work to do to close this season on a high note.
Denny Hamlin
Hamlin has performed remarkably well this season, with 11 top-5 finishes and two wins in 26 races so far this season. Hamlin only has two DNFs this season and has completed all but 159 of the over 7,000 laps this season. He has also led laps in half of the races thus far, showing he can run up front anywhere. His finishes, however, have not been very consistent. When he doesn’t score a top-5, he tends to be outside the top-15, as he has been eight times this season. Consistency will be key for Hamlin, and if he strikes it, he could find himself standing on the stage in Homestead this November.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse is in the playoffs by virtue of his two restrictor plate wins this season. Stenhouse, though, has as many top-10 finishes as he has finishes off of the lead lap, with seven each. He sat 18th in driver points, and doesn’t seem to have much hope of getting beyond the round of 12.
Ryan Blaney
Blaney has shown flashes of greatness, including his win at Pocono, which locked him into the playoffs in June. However, Blaney has failed to finish on the lead lap in nearly half of the races this season. Blaney’s mixed-bag season has included five finishes outside the top-30, as well as nine top-10 finishes. Like Stenhouse, Blaney doesn’t have much hope of getting far in these playoffs.
Chase Elliott
Elliott doesn’t have a win this season, but has six playoff points. Elliott has been relatively consistent this season, with 19 lead lap finishes and 14 top-10 finishes. While he hasn’t competed for many wins, he seems to always be accumulating points and running near the front. It would take some good fortune, but Elliott could contend this season.
Ryan Newman
Newman is in the playoffs on the back of a fuel milage win at Phoenix. With 19 lead lap finishes and 11 top-10s, Newman is in a similar boat as Elliott, where he could contend if the circumstances fell his way. Also of note is that Newman is on a four-race streak of top-10 finishes. We’ll see if he rides that momentum into the playoffs.
Kurt Busch
Like Newman, Busch is on a hot streak, having not finished outside the top-15 since wrecking out at Indy. His last three finishes have all been top-5s. Five DNFs this season cast his championship potential into doubt, though. Busch will need to stay far away from trouble in order to contend this season, but it is certainly in the cards.
Kasey Kahne
Kahne captured a victory at Indianapolis, propelling him into the playoffs. Kahne, though, has only four top-10s all season, and has led only 31 laps. Kahne also has six DNFs, all because of crashes, all coming since the Coca-Cola 600 in May. There’s little chance that Kahne makes it out of the round of 16.
Austin Dillon
Dillon is in the playoffs because of his Coca-Cola 600 victory in May. His numbers are near-identical to Kahne’s, with four top-10s. He’s been sitting near the bottom of the top-20 in points all season, and, like Kahne, is likely to be one of those knocked out as the field shrinks to 12.
Matt Kenseth
Kenseth doesn’t have a win this season, but has 19 lead lap finishes, 12 top-10s, and two poles. Kenseth, though, has five DNFs this season, all from wrecks. Three of them came in the first five races of the season. The others came in the Coke Zero 400, and, of course, in the ambulance incident last Saturday. Recently, Kenseth has been sitting just inside the top-10 in points, and could make a deep run, despite not having a victory.
Jamie McMurray
McMurray has the dubious distinction of being the only playoff driver with neither a stage nor race win this season. McMurray, though, has only five finishes off of the lead lap, fewer than many in front of him. Consistency will be his greatest weapon throughout the playoffs, as it has been so far this season. McMurray hasn’t fallen outside the top-10 in points since Atlanta, the second race of the season. If he can keep it up, he could make a deep run into the Round of 12, or even the Round of 8.